Technology thesis · Defence & Aerospace
high conviction growthCounter-drone systems
Counter-drone is defence's fastest-growing segment: Ukraine proved $500 drones kill $10M vehicles, and only cheap-per-shot lasers, microwave and EW – not Patriot-class missiles – answer swarms at scale.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Jun 24, 2026
The thesis
Core thesis
Ukraine war demonstrated that $500 FPV drones can destroy $10M tanks. Traditional air defence (Patriot at $4M/missile) is economically unsustainable against drone swarms. Solutions: directed energy (laser at $1-10/shot), electronic warfare (RF jamming), interceptor drones, and AI-powered detection/tracking. Israel's Iron Beam is the most advanced laser counter-drone system. The market is growing 25%+ annually. The fundamental shift: air defence must become as cheap as the threat it faces.
State of the art (2026)
Counter-UAS has shifted from pilot projects to fielded, layered architecture. In December 2025 Rafael delivered the first operational Iron Beam high-power laser to the IDF, making Israel the first state to field a laser air-defence interceptor at roughly a few dollars per shot. Epirus won a $43.5M US Army order in July 2025 for Gen II Leonidas microwave systems that down drone swarms in a single pulse. Anduril secured a $20B Army agreement in March 2026 emphasising Roadrunner interceptors and Pulsar electronic warfare. Doctrinally, JIATF 401 replaced the Joint C-sUAS Office in August 2025, following Trump’s June 2025 airspace-sovereignty order. The unsolved problem remains affordable defeat of large autonomous swarms.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
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Decision frameworks
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Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
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