We use third-party cookies in order to personalize your site experience. See our Privacy Policy.

Category thesis

high conviction 20 technologies

Critical Materials

Critical material supply chains are the Achilles heel of both the energy transition and AI infrastructure build; China's dominance in processing gives Beijing leverage that Western diversification will take a decade to blunt.

The thesis

Category overview

China controls 90% of rare earth refining, 80%+ of gallium/germanium, 60%+ of lithium refining, and 95%+ of LFP cathode materials. The bottleneck is chemical processing, not mining. Western diversification efforts will take a decade. Chemical precursors (ammonium sulfate, magnesium sulfate) needed for refining are also overwhelmingly Chinese-produced. This is the most underappreciated strategic vulnerability.

Technologies tracked

20 total

Additive manufacturing Advanced materials Advanced mineral processing Advanced recycling Antimony supply chain Carbon fiber composites Cobalt supply chain Copper supply chain Critical minerals supply chains Desalination Direct lithium extraction (DLE) Dysprosium and heavy rare earths Gallium and germanium Graphite supply chain Lithium supply chain Neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets Neon and specialty gases Nickel supply chain Rare earth elements Tungsten supply chain

The rest is inside

The full signal stack, KPIs and catalysts — live.

Every position is backed by talent flows, research and patent velocity, operational signals and a dated catalyst calendar. Log in to CanaryIQ to read the full analysis behind the verdict.