Technology thesis · Connectivity & Space
medium conviction growthOpen RAN
Open RAN has graduated from buzzword to deployment reality but Ericsson and Nokia have largely contained the disaggregation threat to their business model.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Apr 22, 2026
The thesis
Core thesis
Open RAN disaggregates radio access networks, allowing operators to mix vendors. Growing at 26.5% CAGR, projected to reach 23% of installed base by 2031. But performance gaps vs integrated RAN persist, and Ericsson/Nokia have adopted enough openness to neutralise the competitive threat. Mavenir, Parallel Wireless, and Altiostar are Open RAN pure plays.
State of the art (2026)
Open RAN in 2026 is real but contained. Dell'Oro and Omdia put the overall RAN market flat near $35bn, with Huawei and Ericsson holding close to two-thirds of it; Open RAN itself is a sub-$6bn slice growing fast off a small base. The headline deployment is AT&T's ~$14bn five-year Ericsson programme, around 40% through its Nokia-to-Ericsson radio swap and targeting 70% of traffic on open-capable hardware by year-end, with first live multi-vendor calls using 1Finity and Mavenir radios. Vodafone leads in Europe; Rakuten and DISH/EchoStar remain the greenfield reference points. The unresolved question is whether 'open-capable' single-vendor stacks ever become genuinely multi-vendor at scale.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
The rest is inside
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Open RAN has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.