Technology thesis · Computing Infrastructure
medium conviction growthDigital identity
Digital identity is being transformed by passkeys, verifiable credentials, and proof-of-personhood systems; as AI makes deepfakes trivial, proving you're human becomes critical infrastructure.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Apr 23, 2026
The thesis
State of the art (2026)
Digital identity in 2026 is consolidating around three live fronts. Passwordless has tipped: the FIDO Alliance counts roughly 5 billion passkeys in use, Google reports over 800 million accounts on passkeys, and Microsoft is moving more than a billion users off passwords. Government rails are arriving on a hard clock – Regulation (EU) 2024/1183 requires every member state to offer an EU Digital Identity Wallet by end-2026, with France, Italy and Poland ahead and most others behind. The third front is proof-of-personhood: as deepfakes and agentic bots get cheap, World launched AgentKit and Zoom and DocuSign integrated World ID. The contest is whether incumbents (Okta, Microsoft Entra, SailPoint, CyberArk) absorb verification and personhood, or specialists hold the layer.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
The rest is inside
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Digital identity has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.