Technology thesis · Clean Energy
medium conviction growthOffshore wind energy
Offshore wind has reset, not recovered: costs settled higher, China and European auctions now drive demand, and the US market survives on court injunctions rather than policy support.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Jun 24, 2026
The thesis
Core thesis
Offshore wind has reset rather than recovered. The 2020-2024 cost spike (turbines, cables, vessels and financing rose 30-40%) inverted the old cost-decline curve, and prices have settled at a higher plateau rather than resuming their fall: UK CfD AR7 cleared 8.4 GW at GBP 91/MWh in January 2026, versus the GBP 37-58/MWh range of AR4-AR6. China is now the pace-setter, holding roughly half of global installed capacity and leading on turbine size. Europe is the demand engine; the US market builds under court injunction rather than federal support. Orsted, the sector bellwether, has raised fresh equity, cut around 2,000 jobs and retreated to European fixed-bottom. Floating wind remains sub-commercial and the most expensive frontier.
State of the art (2026)
Global offshore wind passed 92 GW installed by end-2025, but China supplied more than half (48 GW) and is now the pace-setter on turbine size and cost. Europe is the demand engine: the UK CfD AR7 awarded 8.4 GW at GBP 91/MWh in January 2026, a strike price that confirms costs have reset higher rather than resumed their old decline. The sector leader, Orsted, raised roughly DKK 60bn in an October 2025 rights issue, cut around 2,000 jobs and retreated to European fixed-bottom after losing its Sunrise Wind partner. In the US, Trump-era stop-work and lease suspensions on Empire Wind, Revolution Wind and CVOW were repeatedly vacated or enjoined by courts through 2025, leaving projects building under legal cover rather than policy support. Floating wind remains sub-commercial.
Everything below is live inside CanaryIQ
The full analysis behind the verdict — the structure is real; the content unlocks when you log in.
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
The rest is inside
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Offshore wind energy has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.