Technology thesis · Clean Energy
high conviction growthGrid modernisation
Grid interconnection, not generation, is now the hard ceiling on both the energy transition and the AI build-out, and transformer and HVDC supply chains hold that ceiling through 2028.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Jun 24, 2026
The thesis
Core thesis
The US grid was built for one-way power flow and now has to carry bidirectional renewables, EV charging, distributed storage and – decisively – AI data-centre load, which drove roughly half of all US electricity-demand growth in 2025. Interconnection, not generation, is the ceiling: queues run 4–7 years in the hottest markets (Northern Virginia, Phoenix, Dallas) and the LBNL queue topped ~2,300 GW. The physical hardware decides build pace – large-power-transformer lead times sit at 18–36 months (some HV units quoted to 48), and HVDC converters, GOES electrical steel and HV cable are all tight. The core technologies (HVDC, advanced metering, DERMS, AI orchestration) are mature; deployment speed and supply chain are the constraint, with the IEA putting global grid need above $600B/year by 2030.
State of the art (2026)
The defining 2026 event was SunZia coming online on 18 June - 3,000 MW of HVDC across 550 miles from New Mexico wind to the Southwest, the first major US long-haul transmission in two decades and proof that merchant transmission is financeable. Underneath it the bottleneck is unchanged: large-power-transformer lead times sit at 18-36 months, and roughly 150 GW of data-centre interconnect requests now queue in PJM, ERCOT, CAISO and MISO, dwarfing the renewables backlog. FERC Order 1920 regional planning compliance filings landed through 2025-26, but under chair Laura Swett the commission tilts toward gas and reliability. The constraint that decides build pace is physical hardware - transformers, HVDC converters, GOES electrical steel - far more than software.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
The rest is inside
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Grid modernisation has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.